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The 'Belt and Road' Renminbi

来源:CHINA FOREX 2017 Issue 2

The pound sterling's rise to a dominant global role was founded on Britain's era of colonial conquest -- when the crown had an empire on which the sun never set. The regionalization of markets gave the currency a further boost and to this day the pound still plays a major role in the global financial system. Even though colonial domination is long gone,the British economy continues to show plenty of punch. And while the pound now shares center stage with four other big currencies it has held its own between the euro and the dollar,solidifying its own "living space."

The ascendancy of the US dollar was partly a result of America's rich resources. The US is generously endowed by nature. Shielded by geography,it was spared much of the horror of World War II. With the exception of the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor,the US was largely insulated from attacks on its soil. It emerged from the war as an economic powerhouse even as much of Europe was in ruins. The post-war Marshall Plan and the Bretton Woods System established the domination of the dollar in the following decades. Relying on backing from gold and US industrial muscle,the dollar managed to maintain its sway over the global economy. Repeated oil crises failed to shake the dollar's status. The rise of oil mean the rise of petrodollars,and that ultimately was viewed as more reasonable than a dollar based on gold.

The birth of the euro originated from the extended process of European integration. After World War II,Europe was flat on its back,clearing the way for a dominant dollar. However,Europe gradually moved towards greater political and economic cooperation,eventually becoming the EU. This was hastened by European heritage,culture,shared values and economic interests. The dollar faced a challenge from the German mark and the French franc. Later,a bold effort to compete with the dollar and gold,the grand project of a single currency -- the euro -- ultimately took shape. In the end after recovery from World War II,Europe within a short time had changed its course - from accepting the US dollar as a world's currency to the creation of Europe's own single currency.

Therefore,the vitality of the euro has its core national ties,cultural background,economic commonwealth,and religion. Although the euro has also experienced many attacks from the dollar and the pound and even after the financial crisis breakdown which had a serious impact on the eurozone,its current strength still exists.

The rapid development of the yen is on the one hand a result of Japan's shift in ideological thinking. It chose to abandon old Asian ways to learn from Europe. After World War II it benefited from political,economic and military support from the United States. China and the Soviet Union were kept at bay by the Western powers at that time. Moreover,Japan's manufacturing industry and global trade were undergoing rapid development. Thanks to Japan's prowess in manufacturing electrical equipment,large-scale machinery and automobiles it secured its place as one of world's leading economies. The yen was winning a place among the leading currencies. However,through the Plaza accord,the US dealt a serious blow to the Japanese economy and the yen. Direct implication is that over time the euro and the renminbi filled the space as the yen lost ground. Therefore the yen is like a fading flower which still possesses its charm and remains attractive but has seen its day.  

The renminbi never held any dominant position in the global economy in the past. China had no support from the US or the UK for a bigger international role. Yet the strength of the Chinese economy made the world take notice of the importance of the renminbi. In the international arena there is only fierce competition and a constant contest for dominance. China relied on its own rapid economic development to become the world's second largest economy. The process of the internationalization of the renminbi needs to make further gains to fully reflect this status.

China's the "Belt and Road" initiative is designed to boost trade and infrastructure ties with more than 60 countries,including the 10 members of ASEAN or the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Together these countries form a huge economic zone.

The next phase of this important initiative should include significant steps forward in financial technology. China's third-party payment systems have already entered the ASEAN market and Chinese companies have made several acquisitions in the region. Thanks to this,China has been contributing to the rise of Southeast Asia¡¯s trade volume.

The traditional assumption has been that the "Belt and Road" initiative is largely focused on the construction of railways,highways,docks and airports. But we can draw another conclusion and that is that building railways is not necessarily as good as constructing stations. This refers to the financial technology and third-party payment system as the financial station and auxiliary infrastructure.

For example,Ant Financial Service Group has acquired a leading Indian mobile payment company Pay TM and helped it to improve its business through the construction of new financial and technological infrastructure (stations,transmission towers,communication lines etc.). Before the acquisition of Pay TM India,the company could only provide service to 20 million customers,but after Ant Financial Service Group made its investment,the Indian company had extended its reach to 200 million customers. Along with this kind of assistance,Ant Financial Service Group is ultimately planning to reach between 500 million and 1 billion active users. Eventually,the goal is to provide nationwide service that covers all of India¡¯s population. Moreover,this process should be carried out peacefully and noiselessly so as to avoid unnecessary political chatter. From this one can conclude that there are two major advantages of internationalization of "financial technology." China is in the process of expanding into overseas markets. It can provide technical assistance and teach others how to use financial technology to promote broader cultural and technical exchanges.   

Based on this analysis,the "Belt and Road" initiative may develop a new way of thinking. Construction of infrastructure along the "Belt and Road" region promises not only new railways,ports and cargo airports but also a monetary base for further economic development. This also will help underdeveloped countries carry out necessary technological education and expand their own domestic markets. This will also promote transactions in renminbi. Without a doubt this will push forward the internalization of the renminbi and help integrate that with the "Belt and Road" initiative.

Competitive Advantages of Third Party Payments

With the deepening of anti-corruption,anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism financing in the world,the use of cash has been greatly reduced. In order to modernize its payment model the Indian government has recently introduced a policy to buy more than 20% of the circulating cash in the market. That includes the use of credit cards,third party payments and biotechnology in the payment model (facial recognition system,

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