New Changes of International Monetary System under Triple Shocks

After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s，the international monetary system has evolved towards the diversification of currency composition and exchange rate system，but the US dollar has always been playing a leading role. At present，the global pandemic，the Ukrainian crisis and the strong dollar cycle have brought unprecedented impact on the operation of the international monetary system. In the future，the international monetary system may undergo marginal adjustment.

Main evolution trend of international monetary system under triple shocks

First，the trend of major international currencies was divided，and the position of the US dollar was strengthened in the short term. Since 2020，the trend of major international currencies can be divided into three stages.

The first stage is from the early of 2020 to the late of 2020，when the international monetary system entered the so called "pandemic  hitting period". Due to divergent pandemic prevention measures，the operation of different economies is differentiated，resulting in different trends of different currencies. During this period，the US dollar exchange rate continued to weaken and other currencies continued to strengthen compared with the US dollar. In balance of payments，the US dollar and the euro showed a trend of trade-off，with the international use of the US dollar declining by 2.08 percentage points and the euro increasing by 3.12 percentage points. In terms of foreign exchange reserves，the 1.82 percentage point decrease in the US dollar share was roughly divided by the euro，Chinese yuan，Japanese yen and British pound.

The second stage is from the early of 2021 to the early of 2022，when the global monetary system entered the "digestion period of pandemic impacts". Under the influence of a series of stable economic policies such as quantitative easing，the major economies basically achieved economic restart after the impact of the pandemic，the operation of the global industrial chain was gradually restored，and the international status of major currencies remained relatively stable. The exchange rates of euro and sterling against the US dollar basically returned to the pre-epidemic level. The RMB continued to appreciate against the US dollar，but the rate of appreciation slowed down. The international use of RMB presents a "substitution" for the share of Japanese yen. The proportion of RMB in the global foreign exchange reserves continued to increase，but the total proportion of the four currencies in the global foreign exchange reserves continued to decline. This shows that the global foreign exchange reserves have been decentralized.

The third stage is from April 2022 to now，under the triple impacts of the pandemic，Ukraine crisis and the US dollar appreciation，the global monetary system has entered a "superimposed adjustment period". The exchange rates of major currencies against the US dollar were significantly depreciated，even lower than the pre-epidemic level. The proportion of the US dollar in the balance of payments and global foreign exchange reserves rose significantly，while the euro and yen declined. The pound remained basically unchanged，but the RMB rose slightly.

Second，the trust between the emerging economies and the dollar system has weakened，and the trend of de-dollarization has begun to emerge. Since the new century，the US has frequently imposed financial sanctions on foreign countries by the arrogant privilege of the US dollar. It reduced the trust in the US dollar worldwide. According to the evaluation report of US Department of the Treasury，the number of the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the US Department of the Treasury (OFAC) sanctions targets increased from 912 to 9,421，with an increase of 9.33 times between 2000 and 2021. After the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis in February 2022，the US and Europe frozen Russian foreign exchange reserve assets which rarely violated international practices. This further aroused the concern of non-allies，which greatly reduced their trust in the international monetary system dominated by the US dollar and prompted them to accelerate the exploration of de-dollarization. In March 2022，Russia implemented the ruble settlement order for natural gas，and implemented non-dollar settlement in the energy field. Saudi Arabia and other countries also consider using RMB and other non-dollar currencies in oil settlement. In April，Gita Gopinath，the first deputy managing director of the IMF，said that some countries would form small currency groups based on trade，and the global financial system would become "split up" in the future.

Third，international financial coordination has become more difficult and instability has increased at the same time. International financial coordination is mainly to solve the problem of imbalance in international payments and maintain financial stability. Historically，the international financial coordination mechanism has evolved from the "spontaneous adjustment" in the gold standard system to the unified "agreement adjustment" of member countries in the Bretton Woods system，and finally to the "multilateral coordination" without unified agreement after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. The instability of the coordination mechanism continues to increase. However，with the rapid development of financial globalization and the expansion of cross-border capital flows，the scope has expanded from G7 and other core countries of the international monetary system to periph