The New Pattern of China’s Exports in the New Environment

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19，China's industrial chain has demonstrated remarkable resilience，leading to a rapid increase in its share of global exports. This can be attributed to China's policy orientation of "protecting market operating entities",which complements the strategy of "protecting demand" as practiced in the Modern Monetary Theory in the US and Europe. This effective alignment addresses the gap in supply and demand resulting from production disruptions in the US and European economies post-pandemic. According to statistics from the World Trade Organization (WTO)，China's share of global exports of goods surged to 14.7% in 2020，reversing the previous downward trend observed during the trade disputes between China and the United States. This figure exceeded the high recorded in 2015，which was 13.7%. In 2021，China's exports experienced a substantial year-on-year growth of nearly 30%，propelling its global share to a record high of 15%.

As the impact of the COVID-19 fades and the order of global production being restored，China's export share is returning to pre-pandemic levels. The deteriorating geopolitical situation and the increasingly localized global industrial chain suffering a serious setback to globalization have greatly impacted domestic exports. The impact is twofold: the recovery of the overseas industrial chain has to some extent，replaced domestic exports，and the restructuring of global supply chains has profoundly impacted China's exports. In 2022，China's export growth (in dollar terms) fell to 5.9% year on year. By the end of June 2023，China's global exports accounted for 14.2%，marking a drop of 0.8% from the record high of 15% in 2021，according to statistics from the WTO. In contrast，the export shares of the EU and the US improved by 1.3% and 0.6%，respectively，compared with 2021. As the pandemic wanes，the recovery of production capacity in major economies such as the US and Europe has boosted their export shares. On the other hand，global supply chain restructuring has a profound impact on China's exports. China's share of exports to the US has rapidly declined in recent years due to ongoing economic and trade friction between the US and China and the restructuring of the global supply chain. According to the data from USITC，the proportion of American goods imports from China dropped rapidly from 21.6% in 2017 to 16.3% in 2022，and part of the decline was filled by ASEAN，Canada，and the European Union (EU). From January to August 2023，the proportion of Chinese goods in the US imports further dropped to 13.4%，lower than the 18.8% of the EU and lagging behind Mexico (15.5%) and Canada (13.8%).

Under the trend of global supply chain restructuring，China has proactively expanded exports to emerging markets，helping mitigate the decline in exports to the US and Europe. From January to October 2023，exports to Latin America，Africa，and Russia comprised 7.3%，5.1%，and 3.2% of China’s total exports，marking increases of 0.2%，0.55%，and 1.1%，respectively，compared with the same period in 2022. Collectively，these regions accounted for 15.6% of China's total exports，surpassing the combined share of exports to ASEAN，the EU and the US. ASEAN remained China’s top export partner，with its share a